Lewis Hamilton is currently the bookies' favorite to win the 2008 F1 World Championship. According to the UK principal bookmakers, LH has the probability of about 62% to win, while Felipe Massa has about 41% and Kimi Raikkonen about 6% (Wow!!!). Twenty-one percentage points difference between LH and FM, and fifty-six between LH and KR. hmmm... I think that's too many points.
First of all, Hamilton has only two-point championship lead over Massa with five races to go. Second of all, Felipe has something that Lewis doesn't have. He has a teammate, Kimi Raikkonen (the current world champion), who can help Felipe to win the championship. I'm sorry, but I don't think Heikki can do the same for LH. I don't see Heikki (26-year-old sophomore) stopping Felipe, or making him nervous. To be honest, I don't see Heikki finishing among first four places in remaining races. Finally, the five remaining races: Monza, Singapore, Fuji, Shangai and Brasil. Brasil is ten points for Massa, and probably eigth for Kimi. Massa has shown that at his favorite tracks (such as Bahrain, Turkey, ... Brasil) he never fails. Shanghai could pretty be a Ferrari 1-2 (FM-KR). Singapore and Fuji are a mystery (we don't have stats from previous seasons). And Monza... who knows?
Gentlemen, I bet on Ferrari's duo. Last year, they showed how to win a World Championship in today's F1.
PS: Don't blame Lewis, blame Ron Denis, who again made the mistake of hiring the wrong teammate.
1 comment:
I think your analysis is sound, but Felipe needs Kimi much more than Lewis needs Heikki.
Will the Finnish factor decide the championship? Time will tell, but I do think Felipe needs at least two Ferrari 1-2's to secure the championship- Felipe's weakest stop, rain will surely come into play a few times yet and he is still one point down. Will Ferrari's Finn step up, focus and cooperate with Felipe?
Kimi's always rumoured to have concentration issues- will he be able to pull it off with the only motivation of helping his team-mate? Maybe he is thankful for being handed last years championship from Felipe- maybe Ferrari's renewal vow will encourage him, but time will tell- F1 drivers are a special breed, after all.
I still bet on Felipinho, of course :)
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